The decision made by the President of the Republic, Juan Carlos Varela Rodríguez, of postponing the dialogue about the program of invalidity, old age and death (IVM) of the Caja de Seguro Social (CSS) for 2018, could make Panamanians to have to pay more taxes, as a consequence.
Other possibilities that exist is that they would have to increase the current employer-worker fee (9.75%) or to increase the retirement age, which currently for women is 57 years and for men, 62.
According to experts, the fact that President Varela is postponing this dialogue occurs because he does not want to pay the political cost that this situation could cause to the Panameñista party, which is getting ready for the general elections in 2019.
To Carlos Abadía, former minister of health and former member of the Board of Directors of the CSS, other consequences that might occur for not addressing the problem of the IVM on time is that in order to pay pensions in the future, they will need to increase the tax on transfer of goods and services (ITBMS) from 7% to 15%, just as has happened in other countries.
Abbey stressed that Panama should accelerate this dialogue and look itself in the mirror of Brazil, a country where 60% of its budget goes to pay pensions.
He added that assessing the IVM immediately will produce a greater opportunity to make gradual and less traumatic changes within this important program.
According to preliminary surveys of the current administration of that entity, for the year 2019 could have an operating deficit in this program, which would project a depletion of stocks for the year 2027.
In February of 2015, the CSS reported that the deficit current in the program of invalidity, old age and death (IVM) of the box of safe Social was of $420 million and a next missing of $550 million that will begin to add is by year starting from the current and that the solutions began to scarce because the State is sees each time more cornered.
Faced with this, the entrepreneur Felipe Argote, of the Panamanian Association of business executives (Apede), said that since there are two systems of pensions in the CSS, one mixed and one solidarity, is needed a technical analysis to locate the elements needed to save the program.
Situation that it makes highlight that is necessary establish from now them measures necessary and that is start to take them income, all time that in any moment the disbursement for save to the IVM can be of $3,500 million of dollars, "a quantity very difficult that the State it has".
Argote said the importance of the actuarial statements of the CSS to the IVM program current numbers and to make calculations allowing to establish mechanisms which will provide response to the thousands of contributors.
Political cost
For the Economist and former Director of the CSS Juan Jované, the postponement of this dialogue occurs because the Varela President is dodging the political cost that he thinks that he will have to do it.
In his view, if the President would take a solidarity way out to attack the problem that has insurance, the population is not going to oppose and would accept it.
"What happens is that the Varela President understands that the CSS solution is by the side of the privatization and does not dare to do so," he stressed Jované.
The Economist added that if the dialogue becomes like the one made by the subject of white clay, which sought to impose costs on the population, the consequences would be disastrous, as something that prevents the President.
Meanwhile, Rafael Chavarría, President of the National Council of workers (Conato) organized, said that "the longer we delay in addressing the issue of the CSS, more expensive going out into the country and more expensive it will be for workers and employers deal with pensions".
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